Russian agricultural officials have warned exporters that Morocco and other North African countries could reduce their reliance on Russian wheat due to intensifying competition from the European Union and Ukraine.
Speaking at the “Agro-2025” regional exhibition in Chelyabinsk, Alena Shatkova, head of the analytical department at the federal export center AgroExport, said Russia faces “very high” challenges in Africa, where competition has sharpened both in sub-Saharan and North African markets.
She noted that Morocco and Algeria are now at risk of slipping from Moscow’s export map as European suppliers increase shipments following a recovery in production.
The EU’s wheat output is expected to rise to 32.5 million tons in the 2025–2026 season, compared to 26.5 million last year, a surge that could reshape trade flows. Ukraine, she added, is also likely to redirect more wheat toward Africa and the Middle East after losing preferential access to EU markets.
Shatkova explained that while global demand for wheat in North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa should remain stable, the entry of European and Ukrainian supplies will weigh on prices and threaten Russia’s share in these markets.
She also noted that Russia’s wheat exports reached 43.5 million tons last season, with Egypt remaining its top North African buyer, while deliveries to Morocco, Nigeria, and Kenya recorded notable growth.
The official stressed that the 2025–2026 season will likely see global increases not only in wheat but also in barley and corn production. Major exporters including Russia, Canada, the United States, and the EU are expected to maintain steady volumes, but the EU in particular will capture a larger share of the market due to its production rebound.
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