Economists and financial analysts in Morocco are casting doubt on the government’s macroeconomic projections for 2026, warning that persistent global instability and unresolved domestic challenges may hinder the achievement of key targets outlined in the finance bill’s preliminary guidance note.
The note, issued late last week by Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch to ministers and government departments, calls for a “cautious and disciplined” approach to budgeting, emphasizing the need to control spending and direct resources toward national priorities. It also highlights the adoption of a performance-based budgeting model that links funding to measurable outcomes, rather than traditional resource allocation.
According to the document, Morocco’s economic roadmap for 2026 is centered on four strategic priorities: enhancing the Kingdom’s international influence, balancing economic development with social and territorial equity, reinforcing the foundations of the welfare state, and accelerating structural reforms. Maintaining fiscal balance remains a central concern.
Based on these goals, the government forecasts a national economic growth rate of 4.5% in 2026, a reduction of the budget deficit to 3% of GDP, and public debt limited to 65.8% of GDP by year’s end.
Gap Between Forecast and Reality
Bouzyane Dabbaji, professor of economics and finance at Moulay Ismail University in Meknes, cautioned that the projected figures, especially the growth rate, may not materialize as planned.
“There’s often a significant gap between what’s projected in finance laws and what is actually achieved, largely due to intertwined domestic and international factors,” Dabbaji told Hespress.
He pointed to global price fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and market volatility as external risks. Domestically, he said, Morocco faces heavy social costs from economic measures and the high burden of ongoing large-scale projects and royal initiatives.
Dabbaji urged the government to focus on key social challenges, including unemployment, inflation, and the erosion of purchasing power. He also emphasized the need for meaningful reforms in labor laws and other social policy areas.
“The assumptions underlying previous finance laws have often failed to hold up due to volatile global conditions,” he said. “Achieving the targets within a single fiscal year is difficult, particularly given the sharp fluctuations in global markets.”
While the assumptions may seem economically optimistic, Dabbaji said they raise pressing questions about their social impact: “Will these budget priorities actually lead to better living conditions? Will they address inflation, job creation, and social protection?”
Political and Fiscal Considerations
Jawad Laassri, professor of public finance and tax law at Hassan II University in Casablanca, noted that finance laws are inherently forward-looking and must factor in global and regional dynamics—especially given Morocco’s increased economic openness and diversified partnerships over the past decade.
Speaking to Hespress, Laassri said domestic growth expectations are also tied to the agricultural season, potential import requirements, and fluctuations in energy and commodity prices.
He also raised the political dimension, noting that the 2026 budget coincides with legislative election year, which could influence how economic data is interpreted or framed by the government.
“The 4.5% growth forecast reflects optimism based on the recovery of non-agricultural sectors and continued momentum in key industries,” he said. “But agricultural output and harvest levels will be a decisive factor in validating these numbers.”
Laassri warned that geopolitical tensions and international price shocks could severely impact Morocco’s energy bill, phosphate revenues, and essential imports.
He also urged stricter oversight of public spending, suggesting that “non-essential or low-impact programs be revised or postponed.”
Furthermore, Laassri questioned the constitutional soundness of the guidance note’s drafting process. He cited Article 46 of the Organic Finance Law, which stipulates that the finance minister prepares the budget under the prime minister’s authority, in line with general guidelines discussed by the Council of Ministers under Article 49 of the Constitution.
“The current guidance note appears not to fully align with those constitutional provisions,” he said, warning of a potential legal inconsistency in the budget preparation process.
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