Morocco’s economy is projected to sustain a growth rate of around 4% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by agricultural recovery, resilient domestic demand, and continued public and private investment, according to the latest exploratory budget forecast from the Haut-Commissariat au Plan (HCP).
However, persistent trade deficits, limited employment gains, and inefficiencies in investment returns temper the overall outlook.
The national statistics body forecasts GDP growth to accelerate from 3.8% in 2024 to 4.4% in 2025, before slightly decelerating to 4% in 2026. Agriculture is expected to rebound significantly, by 4.7% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, on the back of improved climatic conditions and cereal output.
Non-agricultural sectors are also projected to expand steadily, particularly construction, industry, and services, all of which are buoyed by infrastructure upgrades, international events like the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, and rising consumption.
Domestic demand remains the main engine of growth, contributing 5.8 and 5 points to GDP in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Household consumption is expected to benefit from better rural incomes, reduced inflation (1.9% in 2025, 1.5% in 2026), and social transfer programs. Investment is set to rise by nearly 10% in 2025, supported by the implementation of Morocco’s new investment charter.
On the fiscal front, gradual deficit consolidation is anticipated, with the budget gap narrowing from 3.8% of GDP in 2024 to 3.4% in 2026.
Public debt is expected to decline slightly, while ordinary revenues are forecast to grow due to stronger tax receipts and dividends from state-owned enterprises.
The trade deficit is projected to widen to over 20% of GDP by 2026, with import growth outpacing sluggish export performance.
Net external demand is expected to drag GDP by over 1 percentage point annually. Despite rising national savings, 29.8% of GDP by 2026, investment needs will continue to exceed available domestic resources.
Crucially, job creation remains structurally weak with Morocco’s growth continuing to generate fewer jobs per point of GDP than in previous decades, underscoring the urgency of boosting productivity and sectoral efficiency.
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