Despite a turbulent global environment, Morocco continues to demonstrate solid economic performance and is expected to strengthen its macroeconomic fundamentals, according to a recent analysis by European credit insurer Credendo.
However, high climate vulnerability and global trade tensions still weigh on the country’s long-term potential.
Credendo highlights Morocco’s ability to absorb external shocks, citing the country’s 4.1% average growth in recent years despite the COVID-19 pandemic and the global commodity price surge triggered by the war in Ukraine. This resilience is attributed to sound macroeconomic fundamentals and a cautious fiscal policy. In contrast to many emerging economies, Morocco has swiftly recovered from dual external shocks.
In 2025, GDP growth is projected to reach 3.9%, up from 3.2% in 2024, supported by strong performances in tourism and industry. Medium-term growth is expected to stabilize around 3.6%.
Public finances are also set to improve. Post-COVID fiscal vulnerabilities are easing, with primary deficits projected to narrow to around 1% of GDP by 2025–2028, similar to pre-pandemic levels.
Public debt, estimated at 70% of GDP in 2024, is expected to decline gradually, though it will remain above the pre-COVID benchmark of 66%.
Externally, Morocco benefits from comfortable foreign reserves, moderate short-term external debt, good access to financial markets, and a flexible credit line from the IMF. External debt remains contained and stable in the medium term.
Still, Credendo warns of persistent risks. Growth remains volatile and below potential, largely due to Morocco’s dependence on agriculture, which is highly vulnerable to recurring droughts. Agriculture accounts for over 10% of GDP and around one-third of total employment. Five of the last six years have seen severe water shortages.
Moreover, rising global geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in trade policy, especially between the U.S., EU, and China—could impact Morocco’s ambitions to serve as a production hub and gateway to Africa, particularly in sectors like automotive.
Nonetheless, Credendo maintains a stable outlook on Morocco’s short- and medium-term political risk, noting the country’s reform momentum and continued economic stability.
add your comment
Terms of publication : Not to offend the writer, people, sacred things, or attack religions or the divine self, and refrain from racist incitement and insults.