A recent survey conducted by BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR) reveals that a majority of Moroccan institutional investors anticipate a reduction in the central bank’s benchmark interest rate at its upcoming quarterly meeting scheduled for June 24.
According to BKGR’s “Flash Strategy” report, 63 percent of surveyed investors expect Bank Al-Maghrib to lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points. This projection is based on continued monetary easing by the European Central Bank, Morocco’s stable inflation levels, and the country’s growing economic activity that demands substantial financing.
The report adds that, despite expectations of a rate cut, the central bank is likely to weigh potential risks in its policy outlook—particularly those linked to inflation and geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel.
The upcoming meeting will also take place in a volatile global economic climate, marked by the United States’ increasingly protectionist fiscal policy and intermittent trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing amid persistent friction.
Further insights from the survey show that 88 percent of institutional investors view the current monetary policy stance as appropriate, while 75 percent anticipate two rate cuts of 25 basis points each during 2025. Notably, all respondents (100 percent) believe it is unlikely that Bank Al-Maghrib will raise its benchmark interest rate next year, even in the event of renewed inflationary pressure.
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