Trump pushes to end Sahara dispute before 2026 U.S. midterms, report says

A recent report by the Spain-based Institute for Governance and Applied Economics highlighted the Trump administration’s urgency to resolve the long-standing Sahara conflict, emphasizing the country’s unwavering support for Morocco’s sovereignty over the territory. 

It anticipates that the upcoming 50th anniversary of the Green March will see a definitive resolution to the conflict under US auspices, with far-reaching implications for the entire African continent and the global balance of power.

This reflects growing predictions of an imminent resolution to the conflict, especially given increasing global support for Morocco’s autonomy plan, waning backing for the Polisario Front, and strong endorsement from world powers such as the US, UK, and France—three permanent members of the UN Security Council.

The report noted that Algeria is expected to face unprecedented levels of pressure, leaving it with little room to maneuver. 

It said that Washington requires Algeria’s cooperation and is pressing it to disarm the Polisario and dismantle the Tindouf camps as part of a broader strategy to bring all sides to the negotiating table. 

But it warned that refusal could lead to heightened diplomatic isolation, legal complications over its support for the Polisario, and possible secondary sanctions against Algerian entities maintaining ties with the group.

If Algeria shifts its position on the Sahara, Washington is prepared to offer deeper integration into the Western economy, including increased U.S. investment in Algeria’s energy sector and access to advanced hydrocarbon technologies. 

The report noted that “the U.S. mediation is presented as a deal too good for Algiers to refuse, with refusal risking potentially destabilizing consequences.”

It also recalled that the Trump administration planned to review and possibly cut funding to UN missions like MINURSO, highlighting the urgent need for Algeria and the Polisario Front to negotiate autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty.

The same source stressed that the threat to designate the Polisario Front as a Foreign Terrorist Organization is a serious warning shot, citing a recent Hudson Institute article detailing legal grounds for such a designation under U.S. law.

The report emphasized that the Trump administration sees Morocco as a key partner in stabilizing the Sahel and views U.S. goals in the Sahara as part of a broader strategy recognizing Morocco’s key role in Maghreb stability and security.

The urgency to resolve the conflict is also driven by strategic factors, including the constraints of the domestic political calendar with the 2026 U.S. midterms looming, the aim to reinforce Morocco’s status as a strategic pivot in Africa, the race for mineral resources, and the need to counter the influence of rival powers like China on the continent.