Wheat production in Morocco and Egypt is set to rise in the 2025/26 season, according to Fitch Solutions. Morocco’s output is forecast to climb 16.7% year-on-year, driven by improved weather, while Egypt’s production will inch up 1.3% thanks to expanded planting areas amid favorable market conditions.
Despite above-average rainfall in early 2025, Morocco still struggles with lingering drought effects, particularly in central and southern regions. After a sharp 40.9% drop in 2024/25 to 2.5 million tons, Morocco’s wheat harvest is projected to recover to 2.9 million tons.
Water scarcity remains a major constraint, pushing the government to invest in desalination, though climate change continues to pose a long-term threat. Egypt, producing around 10.1 million tons annually, remains heavily reliant on imports, meeting only about 45.5% of its domestic wheat needs between 2020 and 2025.
Both nations are ramping up investments in agricultural technology, yet food security remains highly sensitive to local and global factors.
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