Economic resilience and infrastructure investment at the core of BAM's 2025 projections

During its first quarterly meeting of 2025, the Board of Bank Al-Maghrib deliberated on the evolving national and international economic landscape, as well as the latest updates regarding Morocco’s public policies. 

The Bank forecasted that non-agricultural growth would likely reach 4.2% in 2024 and is expected to remain close to this level in the medium term, primarily fueled by a surge in infrastructure investments.

The agricultural sector continues to face challenges, with the value-added expected to contract by 4.7% in 2024 due to unfavorable weather conditions. 

The Bank remains cautiously optimistic, projecting a recovery in agricultural output, anticipating a 2.5% growth in the sector this year, followed by a stronger 6.1% growth in 2026, based on an assumption of returning to average harvests.

The Board also highlighted the significant dynamism within non-agricultural sectors, particularly those driven by infrastructure investments. 

While acknowledging the government’s ongoing commitment to strengthening macroeconomic balances and sustaining reforms, including a newly adopted roadmap to stimulate employment, the Bank noted that agricultural production remains highly susceptible to climatic uncertainties, despite some recent improvements since early March.

BAM reported a notable slowdown, with inflation falling to 0.9% in 2024.

 Looking ahead, inflation is expected to rise gradually to about 2% in the next two years, though this forecast remains subject to substantial risks, particularly from global geopolitical tensions and internal agricultural supply dynamics. 

On the global stage, despite facing geopolitical tensions and stringent monetary policies, the global economy demonstrated relative resilience in 2024, although the outlook remains shrouded in considerable uncertainty, largely driven by potential shifts in economic and trade policies.