Report: As Morocco-Algeria tensions persist, war remains unlikely

Tensions between Morocco and Algeria show no signs of easing, according to a recent report by Oxford Analytica. While an all-out war remains improbable, the risk of an accidental escalation—particularly in the Sahara region—continues to loom.

Both Morocco and Algeria are actively vying for greater influence in the Sahel and Europe. They are strengthening their diplomatic outreach, investing in key regions, and forming security partnerships to expand their geopolitical footprint. However, their longstanding rivalry remains fueled by deep mistrust.

Morocco remains wary of Algeria’s increasing military capabilities, while Algeria views Morocco’s close ties with France, the United States, and Israel with suspicion. This persistent distrust exacerbates the already fragile relationship between the two North African neighbors.

A key concern highlighted in the report is the military balance between the two nations. Algeria has significantly increased its defense budget compared to Morocco, bolstering its arsenal and defense capabilities. However, Morocco has two critical advantages: its regular acquisition of advanced American weaponry and its growing military cooperation with Israel.

These factors have allowed Morocco to modernize its military at a faster pace, particularly in advanced warfare technologies such as drone operations, cyber defense, and air defense systems. This modernization effort has helped Rabat counterbalance Algeria’s military expansion, maintaining a delicate strategic equilibrium in the region.

Oxford Analytica’s report underscores that any potential military escalation would largely depend on the restraint of both countries’ leadership. Neither Morocco nor Algeria can be certain of winning a full-scale war, and any direct conflict could threaten internal stability and national legitimacy for both sides.

The report also highlights the role of global powers in this regional tension. In the event of an armed conflict, Morocco could likely count on emergency support from the United States, Israel, and France. Meanwhile, Algeria would continue to rely on its long-standing military alliance with Russia.

These international alignments further complicate the geopolitical landscape, making the prospect of war a high-stakes scenario for all involved.

Although the likelihood of a direct war remains low, certain factors could heighten the risk in the coming years. Within the separatist Polisario Front, some factions are growing frustrated with the current ‘war of attrition’ against Morocco, potentially pushing toward more aggressive actions, says the report.

Such developments could further strain regional stability and inadvertently escalate tensions between Morocco and Algeria, increasing the risk of conflict.

While the tensions between Morocco and Algeria remain high, an outright war remains unlikely due to mutual deterrence and the potential consequences of a full-scale conflict.

However, the volatile nature of the situation, combined with shifting geopolitical dynamics, ensures that the region will remain a hotspot for strategic maneuvering and diplomatic friction in the foreseeable future.