HCP forecasts moderate economic expansion in 2025 with key growth in agriculture and industry

Morocco’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2025, following a 3% growth estimate for 2024. 

This growth is expected to be driven by a moderate recovery in the agricultural sector and continued strong performance in non-agricultural activities, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).

 The HCP’s economic forecast also anticipates a 5% increase in taxes and levies on net subsidy products in 2025, up from 5.7% in 2024.

In terms of value, GDP growth is expected to rise from 4.5% in 2024 to 5.9% in 2025, with inflation, measured by the implicit GDP deflator, projected to be 2.1% in 2025, up from 1.5% in 2024.

The agricultural sector is set for a rebound in 2025, after a severe drought in 2024, with an expected growth of 4.1%. Maritime fishing is also forecast to grow by 6.5%. Overall, the primary sector is anticipated to expand by 4.2%, reversing the 4.6% decline in 2024.

Non-agricultural activities, which grew by 3.8% in 2024, are expected to grow by 3.6% in 2025. The construction, mining, industrial, and service sectors are all expected to maintain positive momentum, with industrial activity projected to grow by 3.7% and construction by 3.8%. 

The mining sector, particularly phosphate production, is expected to strengthen, with a growth rate of 5.9%.

The tertiary sector, particularly services related to domestic markets, is expected to contribute significantly to overall growth, with an anticipated increase of 3.5% in 2025, driven by a 7.4% growth in tourism.

 The commercial sector and transportation services are also expected to perform well, benefiting from increasing air and maritime traffic, alongside strong export performance in phosphate and related products.