Why the Sahara conflict needs a fresh approach — and how Trump can help solve it

Defense and national security magazine 19FortyFive published a report titled “Breaking the Deadlock: A Strategic Framework for Resolving the Sahara Conflict,” asserting that the new U.S. administration under President Donald Trump has a historic opportunity to resolve the Sahara conflict.

Such a resolution could strengthen America’s position in addressing complex challenges in Ukraine, Iran, Sudan, and Libya.

The report also emphasized that the unprecedented alignment between France and Spain could create the conditions for a definitive solution to the dispute.

Amine El Ghoulidi, a political and security researcher at King’s College London, argued that resolving the Sahara conflict would serve three key interests for the U.S. It would prevent China from expanding its influence in a strategic corridor between the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, demonstrate America’s ability to shape outcomes in disputed regions, and strengthen ties with reliable partners.

He cautioned that failure to act could allow Beijing to deepen its economic and security ties in North Africa, shifting regional dynamics in its favor.

El Ghoulidi noted that traditional diplomatic frameworks, which were designed for a different era, have now become obstacles to resolving the conflict.

He pointed out that the U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara has fundamentally shifted the terms of the debate, while France’s recent support has fostered a historic consensus among key members of the UN Security Council, laying the foundation for lasting peace.

The report argued that resolving the conflict through existing political frameworks could provide a clear victory and generate momentum for broader regional initiatives.

The growing international support for Morocco’s autonomy plan, in contrast to failed UN approaches like partition, marks a crucial shift. El Ghoulidi highlighted that for the first time, both France and Spain—key stakeholders in the region—have aligned behind Morocco’s plan as a practical and realistic solution.

El Ghoulidi also suggested that Mauritania, a country with strong ties to France and significant regional influence, could join this alignment. The convergence of these key players, with shared interests in regional stability, presents a unique opportunity for a sustainable resolution.

The report stressed that immediate action is required, as the strategic and economic potential of the disputed territories remains largely untapped.

Global powers, including Russia and China, are vying for influence in Morocco, particularly in the Sahara. Additionally, Iran’s growing presence in the region, including its ties to the Polisario Front, complicates the situation further. El Ghoulidi warned that China’s increasing economic footprint in Morocco threatens Western interests, necessitating a clear U.S. strategy.

He suggested that the incoming administration shift from the current “failed” multilateral approach to more effective bilateral engagement, starting with the termination of the MINURSO mission.

The continued operation of this mission reinforces outdated assumptions about the conflict and consumes resources that could be better used for economic development and security cooperation. Replacing the UN’s personal envoy to the Sahara with U.S. diplomatic efforts could simplify the resolution process and align it with the current geopolitical realities.

Finally, El Ghoulidi argued that resolving the Sahara conflict requires a firm approach toward Algeria. While recognizing Algeria’s regional power and economic significance, the U.S. should press for responsible leadership. Direct negotiations, led by the U.S., would likely be more effective than decades of costly and unproductive multilateral engagement.

The U.S. should continue supporting Morocco’s sovereignty while encouraging Rabat to develop a detailed and realistic framework for implementing the autonomy proposal.

The report concluded that the Sahara conflict represents a rare opportunity for both strategic action and diplomatic success.

With strong political will, a favorable regional alignment, and clear U.S. interests at stake, the Trump administration could achieve early success and prevent adversarial powers from reshaping the North African strategic landscape.