Intelligence analyst Fernando Cocho recently made controversial statements discussing a possibility of agreement between Spain and Morocco regarding a form of co-sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla, projected for around 2030 to 2032.
The Spanish Analyst made these statements in an interview with the radio program Hoy Por Hoy on the Cadena Ser station in Ceuta causing large outrage from Spanish media outlets and other Spanish political analysts.
The possible co-sovereignty pact spurs the discussion of Spain’s constitutional claims to Ceuta and Melilla and its strategic significance in light of NATO obligations and regional security dynamics.
Cocho explained that a potential joint sovereignty agreement between Spain and Morocco over Ceuta and Melilla is based on precedents found in international law, predicting it would occur around 2030-2032
The analyst compares this to historical precedents like Hong Kong and Macao, where the two countries shared governance. Cocho suggests that such an arrangement might be framed as a “special statute” rather than traditional joint sovereignty involving unique legal and administrative setups.
He also highlights how international laws can be adapted to fit the interests of powerful stakeholders, with Morocco’s strategic alliances playing a significant role, noting that France and the US support Morocco in counterbalancing Russia, China, and BRICS influence in Africa.
Fernando Cocho points to Morocco’s ambitions to extend its influence, including claims to the continental shelf near the Canary Islands and the strategic development of the Tanger-Med port. These moves are seen as part of a broader strategy to gain control over important resources and areas.
Cocho statements were to criticize Spain for not responding to Morocco’s strategies, leading to the isolation of Ceuta and Melilla.
Cocho also predicts that these expansionist goals will complicate negotiations with Spain over Melilla and Ceuta, suggesting that Morocco’s push for greater dominance will lead to challenging discussions between the two countries.
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