Global demands for Moroccan goods in 2023 likely to drop, as economic slowdown drags on

Global demand for Moroccan goods in 2023 is expected to be moderate, with an estimated increase of 3% in annual variation, compared to +4.1% during the same period last year, according to research by the High Commission for Planning (HCP) and the National Institute for Conjunction Analysis (INAC).

The research report, which was released on January 24, covered a variety of topics, including agricultural activities, growing prices, exports and imports, and more.

It also includes a forecast for the first quarter of 2023.

“The outlook for the first quarter of 2023 suggests that the global economy will continue to slow.” “Despite strong government support, high inflation should continue to impact household purchasing power and private consumption,” said the report.

The cost of credit should rise as a result of a surge in key central bank rates, penalizing consumer and corporate investment.

According to the report, exports’ contributions to national growth are most likely to be +2.4 points, down from +6.9 points a quarter earlier.

Agriculture would rebound significantly, increasing by 6.7%, especially if winter weather conditions proved favorable.

The resumption of rains in December improved water reserves, driving up dam filling rates to stand at 31.4% at the end of December, up from 23.8% at the end of November 2022, a 32% increase.

Services, non-market sectors, and trade and tourism branches should continue to assist in the strengthening of the tertiary sector’s added value, pushing a 4.6% increase in its added value in Q1 2023, as read in the report.

Secondary sectors, on the other hand, would suffer as a result of the moderation of foreign demand directed at export industries and the continued decline in mining and construction activities.

Overall, value-added excluding agriculture could rise by 3% year over year in the first quarter of 2023. Given a 6.7% rise in agricultural value added, economic activity should expand by 3.4% year on year in the first quarter of 2023, compared to a 0.3% increase in the same period the previous year.