Moroccan households confidence index reaches its lowest ever since 2008, HCP

In 2022, the Moroccan household confidence index (HCI) fell to its lowest level ever recorded since the survey’s introduction in 2008, according to the High Commission for Planning’s most recent report for the third quarter of 2022.

In contrast to the 47.4 points recorded in the previous quarter and the 61.2 points recorded in the same quarter last year, the HCI was at 46.6 points this quarter.

• Families are affected by the drop in living standards:

In the fourth quarter of 2022, 83.1% of families said that their standard of living had declined over the previous 12 months, while 11.8% saw it as steady, and 5.1% saw an improvement.

Therefore, as explained in HCP’s report, instead of -74.6 points during the previous quarter and  -55.2 points during the same quarter last year, the balance of this indicator stabilized at a negative level of -78.0 points.

In terms of how the standard of living would change over the next 12 months, more than half of the households (52.4%) anticipate a decline, 38.2% a stable situation, and 9.4% an improvement.

As a result, the indicator’s balance stabilized at -43.0 points as opposed to -41.6 points from the previous quarter and -1.3 points from the same quarter last year, detailed the HCP report.

• Less pessimistic sentiments regarding unemployment:

In comparison to the first quarter of 2022 and after reviewing the statistics for this most recent quarter, thoughts regarding unemployment rates are comparatively less negative.

In the first quarter of 2022, 87.4% of households expected unemployment to rise over the next 12 months, while a minority of 4.6% expected the opposite.

After analyzing data from the fourth quarter of 2022, it was discovered that 85% of households, as opposed to 5.4%, believed that the unemployment rate will rise during the ensuing 12 months.

As a result, the indicator’s balance stabilized at  -79.6 points, down from -5.83 points in the previous quarter and -77.6 points in the same quarter last year.

Unfavorable circumstances for the purchase of durable goods:

79.9% of households thought the conditions were unsuitable for purchasing durable goods, while 9.6% believed the contrary during the fourth quarter of 2022.

As a result, the HCI indicator’s balance steadied at a negative level of -70.3 points, compared to -74.0 points in the previous quarter and -62.8 points in the same quarter of 2021.

• Families’ perceptions of their financial situation deteriorating:

In the final quarter of 2022, 52.0% of households reported that their incomes cover their expenses, while 45.0% said that their savings had been drained or that they had borrowed. 

The percentage of households that saved a portion of their income did not surpass 3.0%.

When asked how their family’s financial status had changed over the previous year, 57.8% said it had improved, while 4.8% said it had worsened. 

As a result, the balance of this indicator steadied at its lowest level, hitting -53.0 points, compared to -47.7 points in the previous quarter and -49.0 points in the previous year’s same quarter.

In terms of how families perceive the development of their financial situation over the next 12 months, 17.5% expect it to improve, compared to 25.2%. 

Therefore, the indicator’s balance was -7.7 points, compared to -5.9 points in the previous quarter and 15.1 points in the same quarter the previous year.