The High Commission for Planning (HCP) said the slowdown in global activity is expected to continue in the fourth quarter of 2022, ending the year with a limited increase of 3% according to the latest OECD projections, instead of +5.8% recorded in 2021.
HCP further stated that according to the latest OECD projections, the Russia-Ukraine war is expected to continue to fuel commodity price tensions, and boost the rise in global inflation.
The Russian offensive on Ukraine began in late February and is still ongoing, which resulted in many disruptions in global markets.
High gas and electricity prices would cause companies to reduce production, while central bank rate hikes and the expectation of further increases would raise borrowing costs and limit demand, added HCP in its latest report.
Additionally, reduced supply times and increased inventories would decrease tensions in the production chain.
Following the same trajectory, foreign demand directed at Morocco would continue to moderate, with the year ending with an expected growth of +4%, rather than +9.6% a year earlier, further said HCP.
Net foreign demand is expected to remain negative and reduce growth by one percentage point in the fourth quarter of 2022, added the same source.
Domestic demand, on the other hand, would continue to support economic growth, owing to a consolidation of government consumption expenditure, said HCP.
The growth of household consumption is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter of 2022 at a rate of +2.6%, in a context marked by a slight of consumer prices, said the same source.
Investment spending is expected to decline significantly compared to the third quarter of 2022, as business leaders are likely to be more cautious about the tightening of financial conditions and the prospect of a downturn in the international economy, added the same source.
HCP said under these conditions, the added value excluding agriculture is expected to grow by 3.3% year-on-year, according to its latest report.
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