Morocco’s inflation will continue to increase, with a clear 0.3% slowdown in the national economy’s growth, down compared to 2% recorded in the same quarter of the previous year, said the High Commission for Planning (HCP) in its latest quarterly report on the economic situation for this year.
Non-agricultural activities showed a 2.5% increase, while the agricultural sector witnessed a decrease of 14.3%, said the HCP.
This change is driven by domestic demand in a context of high inflation and a worsening of the financing needs of the national economy, specified HCP.
Following the successive international crisis, notably the Russia-Ukraine war, inflation has affected all countries around the world.
At current prices, GDP grew by 4.3%, up compared to 3.7% a year earlier, resulting in an increase in the global price level of 4%, instead of 1.7% recorded previously last year, explained HCP.
Domestic demand slowed down significantly
Domestic demand showed a clear slowdown from 6.8% during the same quarter of the previous year to 0.7%, contributing 0.8 points to national economic growth, down compared to 6.8 points in the same period last year, said HCP.
The final consumption of households has experienced a slowdown in their growth rate from 6% in the first quarter of 2021 to 1.1% with a contribution to the growth of 0.7 points, instead of 3.5 points, added HCP.
The final consumption by the government rose 5.4%, up compared to 4.9% recorded in the same quarter last year, with a contribution to the growth of 1 point instead of 0.9 points, further specified HCP.
The gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) also showed a slowdown of 0.7%, down compared to 3.3% recorded during the same quarter a year earlier, with a contribution to the growth of 0.2 points, instead of 0.9 points, added the same source.
A negative contribution to Morocco’s trade
Regarding foreign trade for both goods and services, exports and imports recorded strong increases in the first quarter of 2022.
The import of goods and services have increased by 6.8%, up 0.2 points from last year, with a negative contribution to the growth of 2.6 points, instead of a negative contribution of 2.1 points during the same period last year.
Exports also increased by 6.6%, up compared to a decline of 8.2%, with a contribution to the growth of 2.1 points, instead of a negative contribution of 2.7 points recorded the same quarter a year earlier, said the same source.
In this context, foreign trade in goods and services made a negative contribution to growth, standing at 0.5 points, instead of a negative contribution of 4.8 points in the first quarter of 2021, explained HCP.
Worsening financing needs
Growth in gross national disposable income slowed from 5.8% in the same period last year to 4.3% in the first quarter of 2022, following an increase in GDP at current prices of 4.3%, instead of 3.7% set in the first quarter of last year, and a marked slowdown to 4.6% in the rate of increase in net income, down compared to 50.2%.
GDP’s national savings recorded 25.7% in the first quarter of 2022, down compared to 26.3% recorded in the same period a year earlier, given the 5.1% increase in national final consumption, added HCP.
Gross investment (GFCF, change in inventories, and net acquisition of valuables) represented 29.8% of GDP, up compared to 27.5% recorded in the same quarter last year.
The need for financing of the national economy has worsened compared to the first quarter of 2021, rising from 1.2% of GDP to 4.1%, concluded HCP in its report.
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