BMCE Strategy Report highlights Morocco’s promising economic recovery

Morocco’s economic recovery post-COVID-19 is “on a good trend,” according to BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR).

In its January 2022 Strategy report, BKGR indicates that the economic momentum Morocco has regained in 2021 is confirmed with a growth that now is expected to reach 7.2%.

According to BKGR, “a good agricultural year and the boost to domestic demand” are behind the positive rate.

The report stated that “the latest estimates of the High Commission for Planning (HCP) for the year 2021 far exceed expectations in terms of economic growth since the recovery of GDP should be a 7.2% growth rate, versus a 6.7% growth rate for Bank Al-Maghrib.”

The new rates are expected to “erase the 6.3% contraction noted in 2020,” and that this recovery allows “an increase of almost 18% in the added value of the primary sector, as well as the acceleration of domestic demand, further boosted in the wake of the improved health situation.”

The quarterly GDP growth also shows a significant base effect from Q2-2021 with 15.2%, following a slow first quarter that had noted a mere 1%.

Growth in Q3 and Q4 is more normative, indicating a continuation of the upward trend at a slower pace with 7.8% and 4.9% respective growth rates.

BKGR also points out that in 2021, the growth of domestic demand is, in large part, due to “the strengthening of household consumption at a time when gross investment is regaining its form,” which signals an increase of 13.3%, “primarily driven by renewed interest from investors in construction and industry.”

In addition, the report highlights the role of foreign demand, which BKGR says it “increased 24.3% according to the latest figures of the Moroccan Office des Changes at the end of December 2021,” equating to MAD 326.9 billion in exports, while a similar increase was noted for imports, which noted a 25% increase, bringing in an approximate MAD 526.7 billion.