Are Morocco and Algeria on the verge of an armed conflict?

Algeria’s rhetoric that’s been increasingly hinting towards an armed conflict with Morocco is unlikely to reach the scale of a full-blown war – in the largely Morocco-controlled Sahara, and without the support of any big power to sustain the costly toll of war.

What’s likely to happen is increased Algerian military support to the Polisario in its asymmetrical attacks that rely largely on hit and run tactics along the Moroccan berm wall, Riccardo Fabiani, project director of North Africa at International Crisis Group said in an interview with Hespress EN.

For months now, the Polisario front has been publishing reports, that Algerian state media dutifully picks up, claiming ‘violent attacks and bombing’ on most Moroccan military outposts west of the berm, at times extending over areas in Guelmim and Souss-Massa.

These alleged strikes have presumably caused ‘devastating’ losses to the Royal Moroccan Armed Forces.

“It’s unrealistic,” said Fabiani. Not only are there no reports that verify their credibility, but the reality is the Polisario “is unable to carry out such an offensive.”
He said the offenses take place in the UN buffer zone, 5 km east of the Morocco-built berm, where Polisario militants are confronted with a 2,700km defense line loaded with minefields, drone detection systems and tens of thousands of soldiers on guard.

“The Polisario have lost their prime,” Fabiani said – quite literally with their ailing 71-year-old leader Brahim Ghali, and obsolete weaponry that’s previously been supplied by Ghadafi’s Libya, North Korea and Algeria.

“They now run on a few Toyota 4×4 vehicles and outmoded artillery,” said Fabiani, adding that Algeria would likely boost its military and economic support to the Polisario, primarily to fuel its own feud with Morocco.

The upsurge in tensions between the two countries began spiraling down about a year and a half ago when former US President Donald Trump recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the contested territory and joined dozens of countries in establishing diplomatic representations in the Sahara.

The Israel–Morocco normalization agreement, and the expected deal that would see the two countries co-produce kamikaze drones signaled the becoming of a ‘dangerous Morocco’ to the Algerian neighbor, said Fabiani.

“It made the Algerians nervous.’

Within the span of four months, Algeria recalled its ambassador to Morocco, accused its neighbor of complicity in deadly forest fires, cut diplomatic ties, shut its airspace to Moroccan planes as well as a gas pipe that passes through Morocco.

Tensions accumulated last week when Algeria claimed three of its truckers were killed by a “sophisticated” Moroccan weapon on their way from Mauritania.

Algeria’s reasoning behind the aggravated tension is twofold, says Fabiani.
On the one hand, Morocco serves as a diversion from a brewing context of financial and economic troubles and the threat of social unrest induced by unemployment, inflation, and dropping state revenues.

Fixation on Morocco is also working to the benefit of Algeria’s leaders. For the previous generation presided by Abdelaziz Bouteflika, ending the decade-long civil war and fostering peace between the army and the Islamists was their raison d’être.

The current generation needed other grounds to legitimize rule. For Abdelmajid Tebboune, who rose to power against a backdrop of protests and contention, the rivalry with Morocco emerged as the legitimizing ingredient, ideal to consolidate his military rule.

“Nationalism is a great narrative-builder, it gives the people a story,” said Riccardo.

One such show of legitimation was a military exercise in Tindouf province in January 2021 broadcast for nearly 15 minutes on the Algerian state TV, showcasing Algerian soldiers exercising with almost all-Russian missiles.

The military parade dubbed “combat readiness program for the year 2020-2021,” intended to showcase an increasingly confident Russian-backed Algeria able to press ahead with armed hostility towards Morocco.

An article published by the Algerian Al-Shorouk newspaper sought to further drive a wedge between Morocco and Russia, alleging rock bottom relations between the two countries. The Russian foreign ministry denied this, and said relations with Morocco were stable.

When the UN Security Council renewed its resolution late October on the peacekeeping force MINURSO in Western Sahara, which largely came out in favor of Morocco, Russia did not vote. But analysts see the move as a means to consolidate Russian presence in North Africa by avoiding contentions with either side.

“Russia is not interested in backing Algeria in an armed conflict against Morocco, and neither is any other geopolitical power,” said Fabiani.

Rabat is aware of this, said the analyst, as it maintained throughout the months of escalatory tension a self-possessed position that called on the Algeria neighbor to “not be so upset,” Fabiani said.

In his latest speech, the King did not address the Algerian accusations and was primarily centered around rallying more support for the Sahara, saying his country would no longer agree to “any economic or commercial step that excludes the Moroccan Sahara.”