A study conducted at the Yale School of Public Health showed that unvaccinated individuals are likely to be reinfected with COVID-19 every 17 months.
Relying on immunological data from close viral relatives of SARS-CoV-2, the study was able to model the likelihood of reinfection for the coronavirus, although it is challenging to collect data since the virus has been circulating for about a year and a half.
Hayley Hassler, a research associate at the School of Public Health and one of the study’s co-authors, explained that the aim of the study was to find an answer to a question that at this point in the pandemic would be impossible to answer empirically, “how long after you’ve been infected by SARS-CoV-2 can you expect to possess immunity against the virus before you become vulnerable to reinfection?”
The study looked into six viruses that are viral relatives of COVID-19, dating as far back as 1984 and the time period following infection ranged from 128 days to 28 years under endemic conditions, meaning that the disease is constantly found in a population.
The duration of the immunity was revealed to be relatively short. According to Hassler, the risk of reinfection is about five percent at three months after the initial infection. By then unvaccinated people then expect to be reinfected with COVID-19 every 17 months.
Essentially, the findings of the study contradict the notion of the lifetime protection expected to be guaranteed.
“Any one of those individuals may experience longer or shorter durations of immunity depending on immune status, cross-immunity, age and multiple other factors.” Hassler added.
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