Morocco’s economy is expected to grow by 5.3% in 2026, exceeding the assumptions underpinning the current Finance Law by 0.7 percentage points, according to new government projections.
The updated forecast, presented by the Ministry of Economy and Finance as part of preparations for the 2027 Finance Bill and the 2027–2029 budget framework, is driven by a strong recovery in agricultural activity and the resilience of non-agricultural sectors.
According to the ministry, agricultural value added is projected to expand by 15.1% in 2026, while non-agricultural activities are expected to grow by 4.2%.
The government attributed the improved outlook to robust investment and domestic demand, saying the economy continues to benefit from diversified growth engines despite uncertainty in the global environment.
Presenting the report during a joint meeting of Parliament’s finance committees on Wednesday evening, Economy and Finance Minister Nadia Fettah Alaoui said Morocco’s central bank had maintained its accommodative monetary policy by keeping the benchmark interest rate at 2.25% since March 2025.
The key rate has been lowered by a cumulative 75 basis points since June 2024, amid easing inflationary pressures and stable inflation expectations.
According to Fettah Alaoui, the central bank’s policy has translated into more favorable financing conditions. The average lending rate fell by 16 basis points during the first quarter of 2026 to 4.66%, bringing the cumulative decline since June 2024 to 77 basis points.
The reduction was more pronounced for businesses, whose borrowing costs dropped by 83 basis points, compared with a 15-basis-point decline for households.
The minister said improved financing conditions, combined with stronger economic activity, had fueled a recovery in bank lending to the non-financial sector.
During the first five months of 2026, bank credit to households and businesses recorded its strongest annual increase since 2011, rising by MAD 31 billion ($3.4 billion), or 2.9%, compared with an increase of MAD 3.7 billion, or 0.4%, during the same period in 2025.
The acceleration was driven primarily by investment loans, which grew by 7.5%, reflecting sustained investment momentum. Consumer loans and mortgage lending both increased by 1.4%.
On the labor market, Fettah Alaoui acknowledged that successive years of drought continue to weigh heavily on rural employment. Since 2019, Morocco’s agricultural sector has lost approximately 905,000 jobs, most of them unpaid positions.
However, she noted that labor market conditions have improved since the second half of 2024, with the trend strengthening in 2025.
The Moroccan economy created a net 193,000 jobs last year, the strongest annual performance since 2006, excluding 2021, when employment rebounded sharply following the COVID-19 pandemic.
The government said the improvement helped reduce the unemployment rate to 13% in 2025, with urban unemployment falling by 0.5 percentage points to 16.4%.
Despite the progress, unemployment remains elevated among young people, women and university graduates.
According to preliminary data from a new labor force survey, Morocco counted 10.364 million employed people during the first quarter of 2026, while the unemployment rate, under the survey’s revised methodology, stood at 10.8%.
The ministry noted that retrospective data are still being compiled, making precise comparisons with previous years difficult at this stage.
add your comment
Terms of publication : Not to offend the writer, people, sacred things, or attack religions or the divine self, and refrain from racist incitement and insults.