Morocco’s economy is expected to grow 4.8% in 2026, up from the 4% forecast issued a year earlier, as a strong cereal harvest drives a 19.1% increase in agricultural output, the High Commission for Planning said in its economic outlook published on July 20.
Growth is projected to slow to 3% in 2027, when agricultural value added is expected to fall 6.8% under the assumption of an average cereal harvest. The reversal reflects a high comparison base rather than a broad contraction across the economy.
The primary sector, which includes agriculture and fishing, is forecast to expand 18.1% in 2026 and contribute 1.9 percentage points to national growth. It would contract 6.3% in 2027, subtracting 0.8 points.
The projections show that much of this year’s acceleration is concentrated in agriculture. Non-agricultural growth is expected to slow to 3% in 2026 from 3.9% in 2025, before recovering to 4% in 2027 as industrial activity and services strengthen.
Secondary industries, including manufacturing and construction, are forecast to grow only 1.1% in 2026, contributing 0.3 points to gross domestic product growth. Their expansion should accelerate to 3.7% in 2027, supported by major infrastructure projects and domestic demand.
Services are expected to remain the largest stable contributor, growing 3.9% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027. The sector would add about two percentage points to growth this year and 2.2 points next year.
The HCP’s exploratory outlook provides baseline projections for preparing the 2027 finance law and does not itself constitute a government budget.
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