Morocco has a 15.7% chance of defeating France in regulation time and reaching the 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals for the second consecutive tournament, according to Opta’s supercomputer, which ran 25,000 simulations ahead of Thursday’s quarterfinal.
The model gives France a 62.2% chance of winning within 90 minutes, while 22.1% of simulations project the match to remain level after regulation and be decided in extra time or a penalty shootout.
Morocco chasing first victory over France
Morocco is seeking its first-ever victory over France.
The two sides most recently met in the semifinals of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, where France eliminated the Atlas Lions. Overall, France remains unbeaten against Morocco, winning three of their six meetings and drawing the other three.
Despite that record, African opponents have caused France difficulties at recent World Cups. Excluding penalty shootouts, three of France’s six World Cup defeats since 2000 have come against African teams—Senegal in 2002, South Africa in 2010 and Tunisia in 2022, all during the group stage.
Several players at risk of suspension
Both teams enter the quarterfinal with key players one booking away from suspension for a potential semifinal.
France has three players carrying yellow cards from its Round of 16 victory over Paraguay: Bradley Barcola, Manu Koné, and Michael Olise.
The French Football Federation unsuccessfully appealed Olise’s booking in an effort to clear him ahead of the quarterfinal. FIFA rejected the request, leaving the forward at risk of suspension if he is cautioned against Morocco.
Morocco has five players carrying yellow cards: Issa Diop, Achraf Hakimi, Azzedine Ounahi, Bilal El Khannouss, and Redouane Halhal.
Diop was booked against the Netherlands in the Round of 32, while Hakimi, Ounahi, El Khannouss and Halhal received yellow cards during Morocco’s 3-0 victory over Canada in the Round of 16.
The disciplinary situation could prove significant after FIFA appointed Argentine referee Facundo Tello, known for his strict approach to officiating. Tello previously refereed Morocco’s quarterfinal victory over Portugal at the 2022 World Cup, issuing two yellow cards to Moroccan players before sending off Walid Cheddira for a second caution in stoppage time.
Contrasting paths to the quarterfinals
According to Opta Analyst, France faced its toughest test of the tournament against Paraguay in the Round of 16, eventually winning 1-0 through a second-half penalty after a physical contest.
France failed to register a shot during the opening 20 minutes for only the fourth time at a World Cup since 1966. It was also just the third World Cup knockout match during that period in which Les Bleus failed to record a shot on target before halftime.
France finished the match with approximately 76% possession, 15 shots, five on target, and an expected goals (xG) value of 1.45. They also lost possession only 17 times in their own half.
Morocco secured a convincing 3-0 victory over hosts Canada to reach the quarterfinals after withstanding early pressure. The Atlas Lions controlled about 55.5% possession, generated an expected goals value of 0.82, and scored three goals from five attempts, four of which were on target.
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