Morocco are favorites to reach the quarter-finals and beat Canada in their Round of 16 match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to Opta’s supercomputer, which gives the Atlas Lions a 51.8% chance of winning in 90 minutes based on 25,000 simulations.
The remaining simulations give Morocco a 67% chance of reaching the quarter-finals in all scenarios, while Canada have only a 21.7% chance of winning in normal time and a 26.5% chance of taking the match beyond 90 minutes.
Canada arrive with caution ahead of Morocco clash
Canada head into the match with two players already booked in the second half against South Africa, Niko Sigur and Nathan Saliba.
Opta Analyst has projected Saliba in the starting XI against Morocco, meaning the midfielder will need to be careful to avoid suspension, something Morocco will likely keep in mind.
For the Atlas Lions, Issa Diop, who scored his first World Cup goal at the 2026 tournament, picked up a yellow card in the 47th minute.
In Friday’s pre-match press conference, Morocco coach Mohamed Ouahbi said using defender Diop in attacking set pieces is a common tactic in most teams, but it depends on timing and “won’t be part of his plan for the next match.”
English referee Michael Oliver, who has officiated around 546 matches since his debut in 2010, is set to officiate Canada vs Morocco.
He averages 3.49 yellow cards per game, 0.07 red cards, and has awarded 195 penalties in his career.
Oliver gave three yellow cards in the Group F clash between the Netherlands and Sweden at the 2026 World Cup, before showing two yellows and awarding a penalty in France vs Norway in Group I.
World Cup records for Morocco and Canada:
By scoring in the dying minutes against South Africa, Canada secured their first-ever win in a World Cup knockout match.
The Round of 16 clash will be the fifth meeting between Canada and Morocco, including their group-stage encounter at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, when the Atlas Lions won 2-1, with Canada’s only goal coming from a Nayef Aguerd own goal.
According to Opta Analyst, Morocco have conceded an average of just 8.3 shots and 0.8 expected goals against (xGA) per game at this World Cup, their best defensive record in a single edition of the tournament.
The Atlas Lions have also won six of their last eight knockout matches at major tournaments, including the AFCON, with three of those victories coming via penalty shootouts.
How Morocco and Canada fared in the Round of 32:
Opta Analyst showed Morocco dominated their Round of 32 clash against the Netherlands, controlling 70.1% of possession, generating 1.4 expected goals (xG) from 11 shots and five big chances, and completing a tournament-high 879 passes.
The Atlas Lions also recorded a 73.7% tackle success rate, made around 34 clearances, and achieved an 87.8% passing accuracy rate in the opposition half.
But despite dominating the match statistically, the Atlas Lions struggled to convert their chances and failed to secure victory before the shootout.
The Netherlands managed to score in the 72nd minute, but Issa Diop’s late equalizer sent the match into extra time before Yassine Bounou helped Morocco seal victory on penalties.
During their Round of 32 clash against South Africa, Canada had just 41.6% possession and generated 1.32 expected goals (xG) from 12 shots, including seven on target, but only found the net in stoppage time (90+2).
add your comment
Terms of publication : Not to offend the writer, people, sacred things, or attack religions or the divine self, and refrain from racist incitement and insults.