Morocco has a 1.6% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup, placing it 14th among the remaining teams in Opta’s latest forecast following the end of the group stage.
The sports analytics company ran 25,000 simulations of the knockout rounds, using team strength, previous results, group-stage performances and each country’s possible route through the bracket.
Morocco was given a 38.8% chance of reaching the round of 16, a 24.3% probability of advancing to the quarter-finals and an 8.7% chance of returning to the semi-finals, four years after becoming the first African and Arab team to reach that stage.
The model gave the Atlas Lions a 3.8% chance of reaching the final and a 1.6% probability of lifting the trophy, level with Belgium but ahead of it in Opta’s overall ranking.
France emerged as the leading title candidate with an 18.7% chance after winning all three group matches. Defending champion Argentina followed at 16.3%, ahead of Spain at 13.5% and England at 9.7%.
Brazil ranked fifth at 6.5%, followed by the Netherlands, Portugal and Germany. Colombia, Norway, the United States, Switzerland and Mexico were also placed above Morocco, while Belgium and Japan followed the Atlas Lions.
Morocco faces the Netherlands in the round of 32 at Monterrey Stadium on Monday evening, with kickoff scheduled for 2 a.m. Tuesday in Morocco.
Opta’s match model makes the Netherlands the favourite, giving the Dutch a 47.6% chance of winning in normal time compared with Morocco’s 25%, with the remaining probability assigned to a draw.
The teams both collected seven points in the group stage. Morocco finished second in Group C behind Brazil on goal difference, while the Netherlands topped Group F.
The winner will advance to face Canada in Houston on July 4.
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