Bank Al-Maghrib is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% through the end of 2026 as higher energy costs threaten to revive imported inflation, Attijari Global Research said.
The central bank could resume monetary easing in the second half of 2027 if Brent crude prices decline and Morocco returns to a disinflationary path, AGR said in its latest fixed-income report.
Bank Al-Maghrib left rates unchanged in June for a fifth consecutive meeting after cutting them by 25 basis points three times between June 2024 and March 2025.
AGR said a prolonged energy shock, faster international inflation and tighter policy by major central banks could push Moroccan inflation above 1.5%, and possibly to 2%, by 2027.
However, a strong agricultural season and core inflation projected at 0.2% in 2026 should help keep price growth below the central bank’s 2% target, the research firm said.
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