Bank Al-Maghrib raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 1.5% on Tuesday, saying the Middle East war had increased Morocco’s energy bill and pushed fuel prices 27.6% higher in May.
The central bank had forecast inflation of 0.8% at its previous quarterly meeting in March. It now expects price growth to accelerate further to 2.1% in 2027.
Bank Al-Maghrib said the conflict had severely disrupted supply chains, intensified global inflationary pressure and increased uncertainty surrounding the international economic outlook.
A recent memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran could allow maritime transport to return gradually to normal, the bank said, although economic activity was expected to remain affected by the war in the short term.
Higher fuel costs and imported inflation would produce a “marked acceleration” in domestic inflation, though price growth should remain moderate over the medium term, it added.
Core inflation is expected to remain limited to 0.2% in 2026, largely because of falling food prices, particularly olive oil.
It is then forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2027 as that effect fades and imported inflation increases.
Financial-sector experts surveyed by the bank expect inflation to average 2.2% over both eight-quarter and 12-quarter horizons.
Despite the revised inflation outlook, Bank Al-Maghrib kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25%.
The bank said expected inflation remained compatible with its medium-term price-stability objective, while economic activity continued to strengthen amid high uncertainty over the global outlook.
add your comment
Terms of publication : Not to offend the writer, people, sacred things, or attack religions or the divine self, and refrain from racist incitement and insults.