Morocco’s economy is expected to grow by 5% in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 4.1% in the same period of 2025, according to the latest economic outlook report from the High Commission for Planning.
The agency said the national economy is likely to have been driven by a rebalancing of growth sources toward supply, supported by exceptional weather conditions. Agricultural activity is expected to expand by 14.8%, while non-agricultural sectors are projected to grow by 3.8%.
Agriculture is expected to contribute 1.5 percentage points to overall gross domestic product growth, driven by increased rainfall that was both geographically and temporally well distributed, 86.6% higher than the previous year’s average.
The report said secondary sectors are expected to remain affected by continued slowdowns in extractive industries and construction, despite an improvement in manufacturing supported by higher output in food industries and transport equipment. The services sector is expected to maintain growth of around 4.3%.
The commission said the improvement in growth is also linked to a slight recovery in European demand, alongside higher investment spending and more accommodative monetary policy conditions.
This trend is expected to support services and consumer goods, helping boost exports of goods and services by 7.4%. Imports are also expected to rise, though at a slower pace of 6.9%, which would reduce the negative contribution of external trade to growth to minus 0.3 percentage points.
Domestic demand is expected to continue increasing, though at a more moderate pace of 4.8%, compared with 6.2% in the final quarter of 2025. Investment is expected to stabilize after five quarters of strong momentum, while household consumption is projected to rise by 4.6%, supported by improved incomes, particularly in rural areas, and easing inflationary pressures.
Overall inflation is expected to stand at minus 0.1% in the first quarter of the year, driven mainly by a decline in food prices of 1.1%. The decrease reflects a base effect linked to high price levels recorded during the same period in 2025, as well as a sharp drop in olive oil prices.
Non-food prices are expected to rise slightly, driven by increases in service costs and jewelry prices.
Core inflation, which excludes regulated and volatile prices, is also expected to decline due to continued decreases in food-related components.
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