Morocco’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% on Tuesday and said economic growth was likely to strengthen to 5.6% in 2026, helped by a strong rebound in agricultural output under favourable weather conditions.
“Taking into account the continued notable momentum in economic activity, the moderate levels of inflation expected and the strong uncertainty surrounding the international outlook, as well as the results of stress tests carried out by Bank Al Maghrib for the national economy, the Council deemed it appropriate to keep the key rate unchanged at 2.25%,” the bank said in a statement after its first quarterly meeting of 2026 in Rabat.
Bank Al Maghrib said the economy was estimated to have grown 4.8% in 2025 and would likely expand 5.6% in 2026 before slowing to 3.5% in 2027.
The bank attributed the stronger 2026 outlook mainly to very favourable climatic conditions, which it said were expected to lead to a marked increase in agricultural production.
Based on an estimated planted area of 3.9 million hectares, the central bank forecast Morocco’s harvest of the three main cereals at 82 million quintals.
After an estimated 5% rise in 2025, agricultural value added is expected to increase 14.4% in 2026 before falling 5.3% in 2027 on the assumption of a return to an average cereal crop, it said.
Non agricultural activity is expected to remain robust at around 4.5%, supported in particular by continued investment in economic and social infrastructure.
The bank said inflation had remained low, helped by improved supply of some food products and lower fuel prices. Over the medium term, inflation is expected to rise gradually as those effects fade and oil prices increase in the central scenario, while remaining moderate at 0.8% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027.
Bank Al Maghrib said it would continue to monitor domestic and external conditions closely, particularly developments in the Middle East and their possible impact on growth and inflation.
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