Morocco’s national economic growth is expected to reach 4.2% in the first quarter of 2026 on a year-on-year basis, up from 4% in the previous quarter, according to forecasts by the High Commission for Planning (HCP).
This slight acceleration would mainly be driven by agricultural and tertiary activities, with their contribution to overall economic growth estimated at +2.9 percentage points, the HCP explains in an economic outlook report detailing the situation of key economic indicators observed in Q3-2025 and estimated for Q4-2025, and outlining forecasts for Q1-2026.
The construction sector is expected to continue growing at a rate of 3.4%, following the slowdown observed at the end of 2025, which was attributed to temporary disruptions caused by adverse weather conditions in December.
By contrast, the manufacturing industry, more exposed to fluctuations in external demand, is expected to post moderate growth (+3.1%), reflecting the persistence of pressures on export markets.
The HCP estimates that the national economy should evolve at the beginning of 2026 in an environment marked by a combination of external and structural shocks. On the one hand, the continued moderation of European demand, exacerbated by the increase in U.S. tariff duties and the intensification of Chinese competition, would continue to weigh on national exports.
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