Morocco projects higher tax revenue from tobacco, alcohol in 2026 budget plan

Morocco’s draft 2026 finance bill shows the government is counting on steady tax revenues, particularly from tobacco and alcohol, to narrow the budget deficit to 3% of GDP next year, down from an estimated 3.5% by the end of 2025.

According to official budget data, the government expects to collect 21.17 billion dirhams ($2.03 billion) in excise taxes from alcohol and tobacco — nearly three times the profit expected from the state-owned OCP Group, the phosphate giant, which is projected to contribute 7 billion dirhams.

The bill forecasts 1.49 billion dirhams in revenue from domestic taxes on wine and spirits, 1.96 billion dirhams from beer, and 17.72 billion dirhams from manufactured tobacco.

These figures mark a sharp increase from the 16.44 billion dirhams projected in the 2025 finance law, which estimated 1.19 billion dirhams from spirits, 1.55 billion dirhams from beer, and 13.7 billion dirhams from tobacco.

Under the 2026 draft, the government anticipates total ordinary revenues of 432.8 billion dirhams, against overall expenditures of 488.2 billion dirhams, including special treasury accounts and self-managed state entities.

Tax revenues are projected at 366.5 billion dirhams, or about 20.1% of GDP, distributed among direct taxes (164.2 billion), indirect taxes (159.7 billion), customs duties (18.5 billion), and registration and stamp fees (24 billion).

Non-tax revenues are expected to reach 62.7 billion dirhams, mainly from public enterprise transfers (27.5 billion), innovative financing mechanisms (20 billion), and state asset sales (6 billion).

The government’s fiscal strategy continues to rely on stable, consumption-based taxation to ensure predictable income and avoid collection volatility. Gradual tax increases on heavily consumed products, especially cigarettes, remain central to this approach — part of an existing fiscal agreement between the state and tobacco manufacturers.