Fitch affirms Morocco’s ‘BB+’ rating with stable outlook, citing policy continuity and external reserves

Fitch Ratings confirmed Morocco’s long-term foreign-currency rating at ‘BB+’ with a stable outlook, noting policy continuity, support from multilateral and bilateral creditors, and strong external reserves, while underlining elevated public debt, weaker development indicators relative to peers, and structural dependence on climate conditions as constraints.

The decision follows the move by Standard & Poor’s on 26 September to restore Morocco’s investment-grade status, raising its sovereign rating to “BBB-/A-3” from “BB+/B,” making the country the only African eurobond issuer currently classified as investment grade.

Fitch projects that the central government deficit will remain at 3.8 percent of GDP in 2025 before averaging 3.1 percent in 2026–2027, with fiscal revenues expected to reach 18.7 percent of GDP on the back of tax reforms, while non-tax revenues will decline as temporary financing mechanisms are phased out.

Total spending is forecast to average 25.8 percent of GDP between 2025 and 2027, compared with 27.1 percent in 2024, with lower public investment offset by higher recurrent costs in education and health. Public investment is expected to fall to 6 percent of GDP following the gradual completion of major water and housing programs, while debt is forecast to decline from 68 percent of GDP in 2024 to 65.3 percent in 2027, with risk mitigated by the predominance of medium- and long-term domestic instruments.

Growth is expected to accelerate from 3.8 percent in 2024 to 4.4 percent in 2025, supported by an agricultural rebound and stronger export industries, though the current account deficit is projected to widen to 1.4 percent of GDP in 2025 and to average 2.4 percent in 2026–2027, reflecting higher import needs linked to infrastructure investment ahead of the 2030 World Cup.

Foreign reserves were estimated at 45 billion dollars in August 2025, equal to 5.3 months of external payments, reinforced by the IMF flexible credit line.

Fitch notes recurrent social tensions around welfare, services, and infrastructure, which it does not consider a threat to political stability but which could result in additional fiscal commitments.

The agency maintains that Morocco’s governance and institutional indicators remain relatively strong, while challenges persist in urban employment and citizen participation.