Op-ed: International consensus shifts toward autonomy as solution to Moroccan Sahara conflict

There has been a rapid shift in the international community towards establishing self-rule as the only viable solution to the Moroccan Sahara conflict. This marks a departure from the referendum option that Algeria has supported and the Polisario Front has adopted for decades.

Nearly half a century after the conflict began, it is approaching a new turning point that could end the stalemate and open up a new chapter, one in which international legitimacy is closer to the Moroccan proposal.

The equation today is clear: Morocco is supported by the United States and France, while the Polisario Front is backed by Algeria and South Africa.

What distinguishes the current phase is the US-French convergence in their interpretation of the solution. While Washington tends toward direct pragmatism, as evidenced in particular by the Trump administration’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara, Paris seeks to translate this approach into a more flexible negotiating strategy by pushing for a fundamental change in the UN mandate.

In this context, France is attempting to play a pivotal role in engineering a political solution to the issue, as President Emmanuel Macron has stated on more than one occasion.

In contrast, the French scene witnessed a remarkable shift after Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s ‘’La France Insoumise (LFI) party’’ revised its traditional position in support of Algeria and the Polisario Front, moving towards a more pragmatic discourse and praising Morocco’s achievements. This move reflected a growing awareness among European elites of the realism of Morocco’s position. Algeria’s angry reactions to this shift reflect a growing concern about losing a pressure card that it has long played within Europe.

At the international level, a historic shift is imminent, according to the French newspaper Le Figaro, as major powers seek to replace ‘’Minurso’’, which has failed since 1991 to organize a referendum, with a new mission called ‘’Mansaso’’. The latter’s mission will not be to oversee an impossible referendum process, but to accompany the project of self-government under Moroccan sovereignty.

For Rabat, this shift is not merely a technical adjustment, but a major diplomatic victory, as it would mean the first-ever recognition of autonomy as the sole political horizon, with the possibility of removing the Sahara from the list of non-self-governing territories.

By contrast, Algeria and the Polisario Front remain committed to the referendum option as the ‘only legitimate’ solution, demanding an expansion of the UN’s remit to include human rights monitoring. However, this position is becoming increasingly isolated, particularly as some European countries are withdrawing their unconditional support for Algeria.

The upcoming October meeting of the Security Council will be a turning point. If the mandate of ”Minurso” is simply extended, the stalemate will continue and the conflict will remain deadlocked. If ‘’Mansaso’’ is adopted, it will be a historic moment, as autonomy will shift from being merely a Moroccan proposal to the only internationally recognized solution. The international community would then abandon the language of a referendum for the first time in favor of recognizing autonomy as the only solution, in a radical shift that would redefine international legitimacy and move the conflict from a logic of “decolonization” to one of “realistic political settlement.”

Morocco is now at a turning point. Its success in the October battle will reinforce its sovereignty over the Sahara in international forums, enhance its status as a key regional player and pave the way for a much-needed political settlement. The value of the quiet, long-term diplomacy pursued by His Majesty King Mohammed VI is clear, as it has shown that strategic patience and political realism can transform challenges into historic victories.

Let us wait for the decisive October milestone indicated by Le Figaro that will mark this historic shift, switching from the idea that a referendum is the only realistic and acceptable option to the idea that self-government is the ultimate solution.