Analysts: Polisario clings to obsolete 1988 settlement plan as Morocco’s autonomy proposal gains ground

As the international debate over the Moroccan Sahara increasingly revolves around Morocco’s autonomy plan, analysts say the Polisario Front continues to rely on the 1988 U.N.–OAU Settlement Plan, a framework they describe as outdated and no longer viable.

In a recent statement, the self-proclaimed “Sahrawi government” reiterated readiness to engage in U.N.-led talks, calling the 1988 plan “the only practical and consensual agreement” between Morocco and the Polisario.

But experts argue the plan has long been overtaken by political realities and subsequent U.N. Security Council resolutions. “It has become a dead letter,” said Mohamed Atif, professor of international relations at Chouaib Doukkali University. “By clinging to it, the Polisario is trying to revive a politically defunct project that only prolongs the conflict and the suffering in Tindouf camps.”

Atif added that the Polisario’s selective focus on old resolutions, while ignoring more recent U.N. language praising Morocco’s autonomy initiative, reflects “a deliberate attempt to freeze the debate at an unworkable stage.” He noted that Morocco’s growing economic, diplomatic and security role in Africa has further isolated the group.

Jouad El Kassmi, a researcher in international law, said the 1988 plan was rendered impracticable by disputes over voter identification and later admissions by U.N. mediator James Baker that it could not be implemented. “Security Council terminology has shifted since Morocco presented its autonomy plan in 2007,” El Kassmi said.

“The focus is now on a ‘realistic, practical and compromise-based’ political solution, not on organizing a referendum.”

El Kassmi argued that the Polisario’s insistence on the old plan is a survival strategy, as abandoning it would undermine its claim to exist as a “liberation movement.”

He added that Morocco’s return to the African Union in 2017 severely weakened the Polisario’s influence in Africa, where many states have since withdrawn recognition of the group.

Both analysts stressed Algeria’s central role in backing the Polisario politically and militarily. They said the Moroccan autonomy initiative remains the only realistic pathway toward ending the decades-long dispute while ensuring stability and development in the region.