Morocco faces high risk of electoral violence in 2025–2026, report warns

Morocco has been listed among countries at high risk of electoral violence ahead of the 2025–2026 election cycle, according to a new report by the Kofi Annan Foundation.

The report, titled “Electoral Vulnerability Index 2025–2026,” estimates a 90.45% likelihood of election-related violence in Morocco, with a risk index of 47.35. While the chance of moderate violence is assessed at a high 86.21%, the probability of severe violence remains relatively low at 4.24%, suggesting rising tensions that could escalate if not properly addressed.

The findings place Morocco alongside a number of African and global nations flagged for potential political instability linked to elections.

Across Africa, countries facing even higher levels of predicted electoral unrest include the Republic of Congo, Burundi, Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, and Cameroon, where forecasted violence exceeds 93%, and the risk of severe violence ranges from 35% to more than 72%.

The Republic of Congo tops the index with a risk score of 85.49, a 98.43% likelihood of violence, and a 72.54% chance of severe violence, followed by Burundi with an 85.16 risk index, 97.88% violence likelihood, and 72.4% severe violence risk.

In Guinea, the report notes a 95.5% likelihood of violence and a 58.04% chance of it being severe, with a risk index of 76.77.

Within the Arab region, Bahrain is ranked highest in vulnerability, with a 90.32% likelihood of electoral violence, an 18.11% risk of severe unrest, and a risk index of 54.21. Algeria follows with a 97.7% predicted likelihood of violence, but only a 2.92% risk of severe violence.

Globally, Venezuela tops the risk chart with a 91.39 risk index, 96.89% predicted likelihood of electoral violence, and a concerning 85.88% chance of severe violence.

The United States is also included among countries facing potential election-related unrest during the 2025–2026 period. It registers a risk index of 37.77, a 73.87% predicted likelihood of violence, and a 1.67% risk of severe violence.

The report urges policymakers, civil society, and international organizations to take preventive measures in high-risk countries to avoid escalation and safeguard democratic processes.