Moroccan academic sees new momentum for Sahara settlement

A prominent Moroccan academic says shifting international dynamics could soon lead to a breakthrough in the decades-long dispute over the Moroccan Sahara.

In an article titled “The Moroccan Sahara: What Possible Settlement?” obtained by Hespress AR, political science professor Hassan Boukantar outlined how recent developments — including U.S. support, regional diplomacy, and Algeria’s isolation — have strengthened Morocco’s proposal for autonomy under its sovereignty.

Boukantar pointed to the potential return of former U.S. President Donald Trump, whose administration formally recognized Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory. He noted that the United States’ continued support, along with its influence within the U.N. Security Council, could prove decisive.

“Washington’s position holds significant weight, especially given its veto power and its role in drafting resolutions related to the Sahara,” Boukantar wrote.

The academic also highlighted Morocco’s increasingly firm foreign policy under King Mohammed VI, who has made support for Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara a key condition for international partnerships. Recent shifts in European attitudes, including a clarified stance from France, further bolster Morocco’s position, he said.

Meanwhile, Algeria, which backs the Polisario Front seeking independence for the territory, has seen its regional influence wane. Boukantar cited Algeria’s strained relations with neighbors and key international players, especially after a series of coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.

Looking ahead, Boukantar warned that a decisive outcome depends on two factors: persuading Algeria to shift its approach and ensuring that major powers like Russia do not veto progress at the U.N. Security Council.

A crucial moment is expected in October when the Security Council will vote on a new resolution. Boukantar said a clear endorsement of Morocco’s autonomy plan would eliminate the long-discussed referendum option and focus negotiations on implementing autonomy.

Such a move could transform the future of the Polisario movement and bring lasting solutions for Sahrawi refugees living in camps in Tindouf, Algeria, he added.

The fate of MINURSO, the U.N. peacekeeping mission in the Sahara, would also hang in the balance, Boukantar said, stressing the importance of managing its exit carefully to avoid new tensions.

“The decision expected in October could finally end half a century of stalemate and suffering,” Boukantar wrote. “It could also revive the dream of a united Maghreb.”