Former President Donald Trump’s return to power could revive U.S. support for Morocco’s claim over its Sahara, a decades-long territorial dispute, according to a report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Trump’s close ties with King Mohammed VI may create an opportunity for his administration to push for a resolution, the report suggests.
In December 2020, just before leaving office, Trump officially recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over its Sahara as part of a broader diplomatic agreement in which Morocco normalized relations with Israel.
The move triggered a shift in international positions, with several European nations later backing Morocco’s autonomy plan, which proposes limited self-rule under Moroccan sovereignty. Meanwhile, the Polisario Front, which seeks secession from the Kingdom, has lost international backing.
President Joe Biden’s administration did not fully reverse Trump’s policy but did not actively advance it either. However, the recognition set off a diplomatic ripple effect that made it more difficult for the Polisario to gain global support.
During his first term, Trump’s stance on the Sahara was closely tied to the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states. While Morocco has avoided publicly linking its Israel deal to U.S. recognition of its claim, Washington has frequently grouped Morocco with other signatories of the accords.
One key aspect of Trump’s 2020 decision was a pledge to open a U.S. consulate in the city of Dakhla. That plan never materialized under Biden, who showed little interest in furthering the policy.
With Trump’s returns to office, he may seek to reinforce U.S.-Morocco relations by encouraging more diplomatic recognition of Morocco’s control over the Sahara.
The timing could be critical. In November 2025, Morocco will mark the 50th anniversary of the Green March, when thousands of Moroccans moved into the Sahara to assert Morocco’s claim to the territory. The milestone could serve as a strategic moment for a Trump administration to solidify Morocco’s hold on the region.
A major question remains whether the U.S. would take concrete steps to enforce its recognition of Moroccan sovereignty. This could include opening the long-promised consulate, urging European allies to follow suit, or incorporating the region into joint military exercises such as African Lion.
Trade policies could also be affected. Under previous U.S. agreements, products from the Moroccan Sahara were not treated as Moroccan under trade deals. If Trump fully implements his 2020 decision, that could change, allowing goods from the region to qualify under the U.S.-Morocco Free Trade Agreement.
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