Study predicts further recession of Morocco-South Africa relations

The pace of divergence in political views between Morocco and South Africa is expected grow in coming months regarding a number of issues, most notably the Western Sahara, according a recent research paper.

In its review of the potential repercussions of continued tension in diplomatic relations between Morocco and South Africa, the “International Center for Strategic Analysis” expects developments in relations between the two countries would push towards a repeat of the tension scenario of 2004, when Pretoria recognized the Polisario Front and the ambassador left the Kingdom.

The paper referred to the royal speech of August 20, 2022, where the King affirmed that “the Sahara issue has become the prism through which Morocco looks at the world and the clear and simple standard by which it measures the sincerity of friendships and the effectiveness of partnerships.”

The speech highlighted that Morocco’s foreign policy is highly dependent on the Sahara issue as its main compass in the diplomatic arena.

The political and diplomatic estrangement that occurred between Rabat and Tunisia after the latter’s president officially received leader of the separatist front Brahim Ghali, is the grand proof of Morocco’s seriousness about its new foreign policy standard, explained the paper.

“Economic interactions between Rabat and Pretoria would be affected,” states the analysis, “despite South Africa being one of Morocco’s main trading partners on the African continent, with the total trade volume between the two countries reaching more than $634 million in 2022.”

“Existing political differences between the two countries may lead to a decline in the patterns of joint trade and investment exchange between them,” states the paper, referring to previous statements by the Moroccan Foreign Minister in which he pointed out that “Pretoria’s positions on the Sahara negatively affect bilateral relations between the two countries, especially in the economic field.”

Among other effects of escalating tensions, the political paper noted “divergence of positions in international and regional forums,” considering that “political differences will negatively affect the development of common positions, both at the international level and in within the United Nations or at the regional level in the African Union.”

The analysis pointed to Rabat not issuing any official statement regarding South Africa’s move to sue Israel before the ICJ as an example of the possible state of divergence in countries’ positions internationally.

In its review of the most prominent dimensions of the escalation of political differences between the two capitals, the paper pointed out intense competition between the two countries for the presidency of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHCR), before Morocco won the position with a comfortable majority.

South Africa’s accusations against of Rabat during the election process of “not adhering to human rights principles,” paints a clear picture of potentially grim bilateral relation between Morocco and The South African nation.

South Africa’s UN Ambassador claimed that  “electing Morocco to head the UNHCR will destroy its legitimacy.”

The political paper also pointed out the differing positions regarding the Sahara issue and the crisis that erupted against the backdrop of the recent BRICS summit hosted by South Africa.

“Despite historical ties that linked South Africa to Morocco as a result of the latter providing financial and military support to the African National Congress party in its armed struggle against the apartheid regime, contemporary relations between the two countries were strongly influenced by South Africa’s position in support of the Polisario Front,” states the paper.

“Rabat sees this position as a direct violation of the unity and integrity of its lands,” acknowledges the analysis, adding that this issue will keep casting a negative shadow on the course of development and implications of bilateral interactions based on coordination and joint cooperation in recent years.