Like the rest of the world, Morocco is turning the page on 2023 and preparing to welcome 2024 amid significant global challenges. The most notable of these are the impacts of climate change. This is in reflection of a year that many Moroccans regard as a year to forget, one that was marked by a devastating earthquake and drought.
The country is heading toward many social and economic changes, dominated by the decline of the agricultural sector and its severe impact on the repercussions of climate change facing the nation for years In 2023, the residents of many cities and rural areas continued to suffer from drought, which has become a structural problem.
The disastrous Al Haouz earthquake, which demolished large areas, claimed a great deal of lives, and destroyed entire villages in the High Atlas, underlined the severity of climate change and created an additional gap in the Moroccan economy and society that is marked by difficulties, complexity, and increasing challenges.
The severity of drought
Economist Idris El Fina believes that Morocco has been exposed for years to “a severe drought that will affect the agricultural sector and will have an impact on all aspects of life in Morocco,” stressing that this situation will make life in the cities somewhat difficult, and will affect the agricultural sector, the rural population, as well as the agricultural product directed to the internal market and to export.
El Fina added in a statement to Hespress AR that these climate changes will affect the widespread rural-to-urban migration accompanying drought. He emphasized that Morocco should move swiftly to build seawater desalination plants because this is the only viable option and must be carried out according to a well-defined plan.
The expert noted that “what is being accomplished within the framework of seawater desalination does not fall within the framework of a clear perspective, and we need a plan accompanied by many accompanying measures, to overcome the repercussions of the crisis and the difficult situation that the country is experiencing due to the weakness and scarcity of water resources.”
Difficult challenges
El Fina had an optimistic outlook on the seismic event. Positive rather than negative impacts emerge following the earthquake since the Fund’s resources will be used to boost the economy and invest in infrastructure to combat the effects of the earthquake, which was brought about by solidarity and aid. He emphasizes that unlike the drought, which is bad for the economy, the earthquake will be beneficial.
The same economic analyst explained that the reconstruction of earthquake areas and the establishment of infrastructure and investment in them is a factor that “will positively affect growth,” expecting that during 2024 the government will face “a pivotal and difficult year full of challenges, requiring great determination on the part of the government and a creative vision.”
According to Fina, the Finance Law of 2024 has a number of tax measures that will put businesses under pressure to pay more, which will negatively affect their operations and investments. Fina also predicted that businesses would face “major” challenges, particularly if the current trend of high oil prices continues, given the numerous major risks that today’s world faces.
He added that the closure of the Red Sea corridor and its great cost, with no visibility on how long it will last, and the lack of stability in the Middle East, will have a major impact on the price of oil, which will affect Morocco and create additional inflation,” stressing that the ones to suffer the repercussions are families.
However, he believes that direct support for families will alleviate some of these repercussions.
Social and health impacts
Mohamed Benabou, an expert in climate and sustainable development, stated that Morocco has become “a dry climate during the winter, and hot from spring to autumn. We followed how last March and April recorded temperatures exceeding 43 degrees in a group of regions, which had a significant impact on agricultural production, surface water resources, and social and economic life in general.”
Benabou stressed, in a statement to Hespress AR, that climate change today “directly affects a generation of citizens, and the study of the African Development Fund has clearly shown that the Moroccan citizen today has become well aware that climate change directly affects daily life in its social and economic aspects.”
He believes that several large agricultural projects, which employ two-thirds of the working population and generate 14.6 % of the Kingdom’s gross domestic product, have been adversely affected by the delayed rains.
The expert pointed out that the agricultural sector remains “one of the vital sectors that are greatly affected by the weakness of water resources and climate changes,” highlighting that the new climate model that Morocco has come to live under in recent years and may face in the future is drought and delayed rains.
“Today we are talking about climate changes that either bring large heat waves that destroy most crops and affect the health and safety of citizens, especially vulnerable groups such as children, infants, and the elderly, or large amounts of rain that are difficult to mobilize completely and have major impacts on infrastructure, property and lives”, said Benabou.
He regrets that Morocco cannot determine whether high temperatures are a contributing factor in deaths, as is the case in Europe and North America, which publish statistics on the subject. He went on to explain that the scenarios Morocco is headed towards will negatively impact the socioeconomic standing of a generation of Moroccan families and weaken many essential and basic materials and products. Benabou also warned that rising temperatures will affect health and safety and cause sunburn, which could result in numerous deaths.
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