Is the EU embargo on Russian oil benefitting North Africa?

Conflicting reports have been circulating lately about the amount of Morocco’s Russian fuel imports, three weeks into the European Union’s embargo on goods from the country.

This weekend, the Wall Street Journal published a report claiming that “North African countries are snapping up Russian oil products shunned by the West,” which would allow Moscow to deflect the EU’s measures.

“With Russia cut off from the European market, North African countries have stepped forward to become voracious buyers of its diesel and other refined oil products.”

The US source fears that these massive acquisitions are a “lifeline for Moscow, providing a new source of revenue to its economy,” especially after the EU decision.

As a reminder, the EU-27 had already capped Russian crude oil at 60 dollars per barrel.

WSJ believes that purchases of North African countries penalize Western efforts to stop relying on Russian fossil energy, and cut Russia resources.

International media have reported that the waters of the western Mediterranean is used to transfer Russian oil to large tankers, circumventing European and American embargoes.

According to the publication, North African ports provide an “ideal destination” for unloading shipments of fuel and other products that have been banned by Western countries.

Analysts suspect that “some Russian cargoes are re-exported to Europe,” the American newspaper points out.

Russia’s diesel deliveries to the kingdom have accelerated to 735,000 tons in 2022, up from just 66,000 tons the previous year, and have totaled about 140,000 tons since the beginning of 2023.

Data analysis company Kepler expected the arrival of at least 1.2 million barrels of Russian fuel to Morocco this February, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Morocco’s imports of Russian fuel rose to two million barrels last January only, after not exceeding about 600,000 barrels in the whole of 2021.

In addition, the Russian ships’ voyages to North Africa are shorter and not much longer than their pre-war voyages to European ports, which allows Russia to keep freight costs low.

The American newspaper stated that the increase in exports of Russian oil products to North African countries provides a new revenue stream, especially after China and India, which have become the largest buyers of its crude oil, showed less interest in its refined products, which prompted it to search for new buyers for fuel.

She pointed out that the increase in imports to Morocco and Tunisia coincided with a slight increase in their exports of refined products, which raises fears of mixing Russian shipments with other oil products and re-exporting them.

Victor Katona, chief oil analyst at Kepler, said that the quantities imported by North African countries are too large to take on by themselves, and some Russian products are expected to return to Europe.