HCP: Morocco's economic growth to increase by 0.9% in Q2-2022

Morocco’s economic growth is estimated to increase in the second quarter of 2022 by 0.9%, up compared to 0.3% recorded in the previous quarter, said the High Commission for Planning (HCP) in its latest report.

This slight upturn comes as the result of the 3.6% increase in non-agricultural added value, while the agricultural added value is estimated to continue its decline at a rate of 16.1% over the same period, said HCP.

In the third quarter of this year, the agricultural added value is estimated to record a decline of 14.1%, and an increase of 2.9% in non-agricultural added value, stated HCP.

The national economy is estimated to improve by 0.8% year-on-year, instead of the 8.7% recorded a year earlier, added the same source.

Global economic recovery falters

The recovery of the global economy, which began in the post-COVID-19 crisis period is considered to have run out of steam in the second quarter of 2022, said HCP.

The economic activity in the US is estimated to slow compared to the same period in 2021, with rising inflation pressures, continued disruptions in production chains, and the normalization of monetary policy.

In the eurozone, the activity is also estimated to slow significantly, with the prolongation of the Russia-Ukraine war and the increased uncertainty would have penalized household consumption and led to a decline in private business confidence, especially in Germany, added the same source.

Trade strength is driven by prices

At the national level, the volumes of exports and imports of goods and services are estimated to record a growth of 6.9% and 7.3%, respectively in the second quarter of 2022 in annual variations, estimated HCP.

Additionally, growth in exports of goods is also estimated to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 49.7%, up compared to 28.6% recorded a year earlier, mainly due to the spike in prices.

Exports of phosphates and their derivatives, including natural and chemical fertilizers, accounted for more than half of this increase, benefiting from the continued rise in world prices and raw phosphate by 61% and 155% respectively, said the same source.

Escalating consumer prices

Consumer prices are estimated to continue their rise in the second quarter of 2022, at a rate above 2% for the third successive quarter, said HCP.

Year-on-year, they would have climbed 6.3%, compared to a 4% increase recorded in the previous quarter and 1.6% in the same period of 2021, specified the same source.

This rise would have resulted from a 9.5% increase in food prices and a 4.1% increase in non-food products, added HCP.

The surge in food prices would be mainly due to the continued rise in prices of non-fresh products, which would have accounted for 3.5% of the increase, according to the same source.

Weak economic activity in the third quarter of 2022

In the third quarter of 2022, HCP expects that the growth of the global economy will continue to be marred by uncertainties.

In this context, world demand for Morocco is expected to increase by 4.2%, in annual variation, down compared to +7.3% recorded during the same period a year earlier, further estimated HCP.