Consumer price index increases by about 2% in Morocco, HCP

The High Commission for Planning (HCP) said the evolution of the consumer price index in Morocco over the last 20 years demonstrates a moderate trend in price increases, evolving below 2%.

The consumer price index has evolved below the 2.0% mark except for the years 2002, 2006, and 2008 when it was 2.8%, 3.3%, and 3.9% respectively.

Globally, price trends in 2022 are surrounded by upward risks, including supply chains bottlenecks, and the rise in oil prices to $140 a barrel due to geopolitical tensions, mainly the crisis between Russia and Ukraine, HCP said.

At the national level, drought could further increase prices, especially for food products, added the same source.

Inflation in the consumer price index reached its highest level in February 2022, with an increase of 3.6% year-on-year, due to the rise in the food index by 5.5% and the non-food index by 2.5%.

For food products, the increase began in January 2021 with an increase of 1.8% for oils and fats to reach double numbers in February 2022 with an increase of 13.7%.

The price increase for bread and cereals jumped in September 2021 by 5.0% to reach 13.2% in February 2022. For non-food products, fuels and lubricants prices have seen the highest record, with consecutive increases since April 2021. The price of diesel fuels has exceeded MAD11/liter, an increase of 22.0% in February year-on-year.

2022: start of soaring inflation in Morocco

The consumer price index reached a 3.3% increase since the beginning of 2022 in the first 2 months, compared to the same period 2021, HCP said.

This spike in this index came as a result of the rise in the food index by 4.9% and non-food products by 2.4%, added the same source.

For food products, the largest increases were recorded in “oils and fats” with 14.2%, “bread and cereals” with 11.5%, “vegetables” with 4.5%, and “meat” with 4.1%.

On the other hand, the prices of “fruits” and “fish” showed the highest drops of, respectively, 5.4% and 1.0%.

For non-food products, the increase concerned mainly the prices of “Fuels” with a rise of 20.1%, and “Tobacco” with an increase of 3.5%.

Expectations for the rest of 2022 globally and nationally

Globally, prices evolution in 2022 is likely to be exceptional in both developed and emerging countries due to rising oil prices, and the inflation will be higher and more widespread than expected, HCP said.

Food prices reached a new record high in February 2022. They increased by 3.9% compared to January 2021 and by over 20% compared to February last year.

Wheat prices increased by 14.8% in February 2022 compared to the same period last year.

As for oil prices, they reached a new high in February 2022 with a 36.7% year-on-year increase, while milk prices rose by 24.8%.

At the national level, price increases are expected to continue in 2022, HCP added.

External effects and drought are expected to further increase inflation uncertainty in the near future at the national level.

Rising prices of imported commodities and the crisis in the Black Sea region combined with a sharp rise in oil prices to about $140/barrel would keep the inflation rate during 2022 at its highest levels, HCP concluded.