Opta model gives Morocco nearly 89% chance of reaching 2026 World Cup knockout stage

Morocco will enter the 2026 FIFA World Cup with heightened expectations, as new data from Opta Analyst suggests the team is among the strongest contenders outside traditional football powers.

According to Opta’s World Cup prediction model, Morocco has an 88.79% chance of reaching the knockout stage. The model assigns the Atlas Lions a 27.86% chance of winning their group, a 44.67% probability of reaching the round of 16, and a 22.70% chance of advancing to the quarterfinals.

Their chances of reaching the semifinals stand at 10.28%, while the likelihood of making the final is 4.40%. The probability of winning the tournament is estimated at 1.83%.

The projections reflect Morocco’s rapid progress since the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, where the team became the first African nation to reach the semifinals. Morocco won three matches in that tournament, more than in its previous 16 World Cup games combined.

Their run in Qatar was built on defensive organization and disciplined play. Morocco conceded only one goal — an own goal against Canada, before the semifinals. Against Spain in the round of 16, Morocco allowed extensive possession but limited their opponents to one shot on target before winning on penalties.

The team has maintained momentum in 2025, recording five wins and two draws without defeat in recent matches, including victories over Tanzania, Cameroon, Senegal, Paraguay and Burundi.

Opta data also indicates a shift toward a more attacking approach. During the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, Morocco recorded 201 touches in the opposition box and attempted 108 shots, among the highest totals in the tournament. The team also registered 52 high turnovers, including 12 that led directly to shots.

Defensively, Morocco remained solid, conceding an average of 5.6 shots per match, the lowest figure at the competition.

The squad combines experienced players such as Yassine Bounou, Achraf Hakimi and Noussair Mazraoui with emerging talent including Brahim Díaz, Neil El Aynaoui and Abde Ezzalzouli. Díaz scored five goals at AFCON 2025, while Hakimi created 13 chances during the knockout stage.

Midfielder Neil El Aynaoui has become a key figure, playing 1,410 minutes since August 2025, more than any other Moroccan outfield player. At AFCON, he completed 90.1% of his passes, including 94% in the final against Senegal, and ranked among the team’s top performers in high pressing.

Morocco’s development extends beyond the senior team. The country won the U23 Africa Cup of Nations in 2023, secured a bronze medal at the 2024 Olympic Games, and claimed the U20 FIFA World Cup title in 2025.

Despite the progress, Opta highlighted a key challenge: breaking down defensively compact teams. In a match against Tanzania at AFCON 2025, Morocco dominated possession but failed to register a shot on target.

Morocco will enter the 2026 World Cup with growing confidence and international recognition. While Opta’s model gives the team a relatively low probability of winning the tournament, analysts note that past performances have already shown the team’s ability to exceed expectations on football’s biggest stage.