Agricultural recovery drives Morocco’s positive growth outlook

Morocco’s economy is showing signs of stronger growth in 2026, supported mainly by the improvement in the agricultural season after years of drought.

According to economic experts, the government’s forecast of around 5.3% growth is considered realistic given the recovery in rainfall, the expected rebound in farming activity, and continued performance in several non-agricultural sectors.

The positive outlook was also supported by Fouzi Lekjaa, minister delegate in charge of the budget, who said Morocco could achieve growth of around 5.3%.

He linked this forecast to the recovery of the agricultural sector, stronger investment, and the resilience of the national economy. Lekjaa also said the government aims to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP and stabilize Treasury debt at around 66%.

Bank Al-Maghrib has presented an even more optimistic scenario. In March 2026, the central bank forecast growth of 5.6% for 2026, compared with an estimated 4.8% in 2025. It said the improvement would be supported by favorable weather conditions and a cereal harvest projected at around 82 million quintals, while non-agricultural activities are expected to remain strong thanks to investment in economic and social infrastructure.

Agriculture remains the main driver behind the optimistic projections. The High Commission for Planning expects Morocco’s economy to grow by 5% in 2026, supported by a strong recovery in agriculture, stable inflation, and solid domestic demand. Agricultural value added is expected to rise sharply, helped by improved rainfall, stronger water reserves, a rebound in livestock activity, and higher cereal production.

However, Morocco’s growth remains highly sensitive to rainfall and agricultural output, meaning the positive forecasts are still exposed to several risks. This is why the improvement in the agricultural season has become central to the government’s more optimistic outlook.

Economist Abdelkhalek Tahami tells Hespress AR that growth forecasts often differ between national and international institutions because they are based on different assumptions and can change from month to month depending on new data.

He explained that the government revised its expectations after new agricultural indicators pointed to a stronger cereal harvest than previously expected, with production likely to exceed 90 million quintals. According to Tahami, this strong agricultural season is the main reason behind the higher growth forecast.

However, he warned that these figures remain projections rather than final results, especially as international pressures, including weaker global demand, higher energy prices, and geopolitical tensions, could still slow expected growth.

This cautious view is also reflected in external balance projections. Reuters reported that Morocco’s current account deficit is expected to widen in 2026 because of higher energy imports, even though tourism, phosphate exports, remittances, and investment should continue to support the country’s external position.