Morocco is set to grow 4.4 percent in 2026 after 4.6 percent in 2025, Coface said in its latest country and sector risk barometer, as agriculture stabilizes and a wave of infrastructure spending linked to the 2030 World Cup pulls construction and services higher in a fragile global trade environment.
Coface’s Morocco file keeps the country’s near term profile anchored in domestic drivers as global growth slows, with trade tensions and fragmentation weighing on cross border demand. The rating agency points to a multi year construction pipeline, with transport and urban works moving from announcements to procurement and on site activity as Morocco co hosts the tournament with Spain and Portugal.
The numbers behind that pipeline are already public. Morocco has approved a 96 billion dirham rail expansion plan through 2030, including a 430 kilometre high speed line between Kenitra and Marrakesh, Reuters reported, a project designed to compress travel times along the country’s main economic corridor.
Airport capacity is also being expanded, backed by a 270 million euro African Development Bank loan, as Morocco targets 80 million passengers by 2030 from about 38 million now.
Services are providing the second leg. Morocco welcomed a record 19.8 million tourists in 2025, up 14 percent year on year, with tourism revenue rising to 124 billion dirhams in the first eleven months, according to the tourism ministry figures.
Coface’s baseline view is that tourism momentum and finance led services expansion keep foreign currency inflows and urban employment supported into 2026.
Coface also flags what could slow the pace. Manufacturing is exposed to Europe, and weaker European car demand could soften Morocco’s industrial exports in the near term, even as inflation remains contained in Coface’s forecasts.
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